Venezuela is escalating its claim over the Essequibo region of Guyana, potentially leading to conflict.

• Venezuela argues the Essequibo region was unjustly taken from them and is preparing for potential military annexation.
• Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has made several announcements indicating the government's intentions.
• Venezuela's maritime claim also disputes oil-rich waters belonging to Guyana.

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The dispute over Essequibo has deep historical roots involving colonial powers and legal irregularities.

• The Essequibo region's dispute dates back to colonial times with Spain and Britain failing to agree on boundaries.
• In 1899, arbitration favored Guyana, but Venezuela later claimed the decision was invalid due to legal irregularities.
• Despite UN involvement and ICJ rulings supporting Guyana, Venezuela continues to assert claims over the region.

Oil discoveries off Guyana's coast have heightened the geopolitical stakes of the Essequibo dispute.

• Guyana's discovery of significant oil reserves has led to rapid GDP growth and infrastructure development.
• The newfound oil wealth has attracted international business, transforming Guyana's economic prospects.
• Venezuela's economic crisis contrasts with Guyana's boom, prompting Caracas to assert claims over Essequibo for potential oil access.

Venezuela uses the Essequibo dispute to boost domestic political support and distract from economic troubles.

• Venezuela's controversial referendum and legal actions indicate a move towards annexing the Essequibo region.
• Such domestic political maneuvers could help President Maduro in the upcoming presidential election.
• The dispute serves as a rallying point for national unity and a distraction from Venezuela's economic problems.

International factors and military logistics complicate Venezuela's ambitions, with the US and allies potentially intervening.

• Military invasion of Essequibo by Venezuela faces logistical challenges due to the region's dense jungle.
• International allies of Guyana, such as the US and UK, could intervene, complicating Venezuela's plans.
• The geopolitical context, including Russia's relations with Venezuela, could impact the US response to the dispute.